When China increases tariff retaliation, BTC reverses price rise

By Omkar Godbole (unless otherwise indicated)

Major coins quickly reversed profits after Beijing strengthened trade tensions by announcing retaliatory tariffs following President Donald Trump’s decision on Wednesday to impose additional taxes on China and other countries.

Bitcoin fell from $84,600 to $83,000, but the downsides seemed limited as perhaps the worst fears of the market finally came to fruition. Markets dislike uncertainty, and anticipation of looming threats often creates more anxiety and fear than the actual realization of that threat.

Since Trump took office on January 20th, the market has tackled the threat of tariffs and the world trade war. Its dampened investor risk appetite has led to BTC prices falling from a high of over $109,000 last month to under $80,000.

This week, Trump announced swept tariffs in 180 countries, bringing higher collections in China, the European Union and Southeast Asia. Currently, US tariff rates exceed the approximately 20% level set by the Smoot Holy Customs Act in the 1930s.

This so-called Talifazin moment marks the end of lingering uncertainty, primarily because bond yields fell across the progressive world, leading to lower pricing for disinfection. This goes against the general narrative that tariffs lead to stacking up male dogs – high inflation and low growth – force the Fed to raise interest rates.

The benchmark US 10-year bond yield yield fell below 4% for the first time since October, with yields falling sharply in the UK, Germany and Japan. Furthermore, oil fell sharply this week due to higher supply outlook from OPEC countries.

All of this is working well against risk assets, including Fed rate reduction measures and cryptocurrency. The same can be said about the March employment report on Friday. This could be seen as not accounting for Trump’s tariffs this week if he wins estimates, but weak printing will only add to the Fed rate reduction.

Due to the uncertainty of the major macros behind us, the Crypto market can return with a focus on positive developments, such as USDC publishers’ IPO filing and technological advances.

On Thursday, Coinbase Derivatives submitted documents to the CFTC to self-certify XRP futures. Additionally, Ethereum developers have chosen May 7th for the Pectra upgrade date to be published on Mainnet.

Elsewhere, the SEC has granted Fidelity an application to a Spot Exchange trading fund associated with SOL. There’s a lot going on within the industry, so be careful!

What to see

• Cryptography:
  • April 5th: The birthday of Nakamoto Atoshi’s birthday.
  • April 7th 7:30pm: Syscoin (SYS) activates the Nexus upgrade of the mainnet in block 2,010,345.
  • April 9th, 10am: The US Financial Services Commission hears how the US Securities Act can be updated to take digital assets into consideration. Live stream link.
  • April 17: Eigenlayer (Eigen) activates Ethereum Mainnet thrashing and enforces penalties for operator misconduct.
  • April 21: Coinbase Derivatives lists XRP futures that are pending approval by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
• Macros
  • April 4th at 8:30am: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases march employment data.
    • Non-agricultural salary supplement EST. 135k vs. 151K
    • Unemployment rate EST. 4.1% vs. 4.1%
  • April 4th at 8:30am: Statistics Canada releases employment data for March.
    • Unemployment rate EST. 6.7% vs. 6.6%
  • April 4th, 11:25am: Chairman Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook.” Live stream link.
  • April 5th, 12:01am: Trump administration’s 10% baseline tariffs on imports from all countries are in effect.
  • April 9th, 12:01am: The Trump administration’s higher individual tariffs will take effect on imports from the top US trade-inhibited countries.
  • April 14: Salvador President Naive Buquel joins President Donald Trump at the White House for an official visit.
• Revenue (Estimation based on fact set data)

Token Event

• Governance votes and phone calls
  • Sky Dao is voting for executive proposals, including initializing Allocator-Bloom-A, updating hop parameters for the smart burn engine, approving Spark Tokenization Grand Prix DAO resolution, and running Spark Prix Spell to expand SparkLend’s liquidity operations. Voting will end on May 3rd.
  • Aavedao discusses the upgrade to GHO savings and introduces technical design changes to SGHO, a version with GHO yields designed for multichine integration. We will also introduce an Aave Savings Rate (ASR), which determines the SGHO yield.
  • April 4th: 9am: Core Dao will be holding an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
  • April 4th 2pm: SEI’s research initiative to preserve live streams on real-world asset tokenization.
  • April 7th, 9am: Original Trail will hold a Zoom Talk “Formulate AI for Good.”
  • April 7th, 4pm: Live Pier hosts monthly community calls focusing on governance, fundraising and the strategic direction of its on-chain Treasury.
• Unlock
  • April 5: Ecena (ENA) unlocks 3.25% of its circulation supply worth $54.22 million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) unlocks a $10.17 million lock on its circulating supply.
  • April 9: Movement (movement) to unlock 2.04% of distribution supply worth $19.17 million.
  • April 12: APTOS (APT) unlocks 1.87% of distribution supplies worth $57 million.
  • April 12: Axie Infinity (AXS) unlocks 5.68% of its distribution supply worth $24.91 million.
• Token List

meeting

Token talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Infection, a Crypto game, moves from the base network to Solana after the latter says it cannot handle its launch.
• The infected claims that they face technical issues during launch, claiming that the base cannot handle high transaction volumes, with gas price spikes and low user experience.
• During the crucial first 30 minutes of the game’s debut, the gas spikes reportedly caused a transactional failure, disrupting momentum.
• The front-end issue was initially suspected, but the team concluded that the base scalability limitations were the root cause.

• Base creator Jesse Pollack rejected the claim, claiming that the base worked smoothly and did not crash. He highlighted that a total of $3.05 billion total is locked, with 1.2 million active addresses, providing support to resolve front-end issues, suggesting that the issue is not unique to the chain.
• Basic developer Saedeh called Intected’s inexperienced experience, pointing to the introduction of multiple tokens and exaggerated market capitalization claims as a failure.

Positioning of derivatives

• BTC, ETH Puts, trades at a premium compared to the June expiration call, expressing short-term downside concerns.
• Positive dealer gamma on the $83,000 and $84,000 strike means these market participants could trade with the market to hedge books and arrest price volatility.
• The persistent funding rates for most major tokens except XRP and avax are slightly positive and suggestive of careful bullish sentiment.

Market movements

• BTC is up 1.25% from 4pm on Thursday at $83,032.61 (24 hours: -0.28%)
• ETH increased by 0.61% to $1,795.41 (24 hours: +0.15%)
• Coindesk 20 is up 1.54% at 2,479.75 (24 hours: +0.62%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Increases 6 bps at 3.08%
• BTC’s funding rate is 0.0023% (annual rate of 2.4988%) in terms of vinanence

• DXY is up 0.47% at 102.56
• Gold increased by 0.48% to $3,111.90 per ounce
• Silver is down 1.38% to $31.40/ounce
• Nikkei 225 closed -2.75% at 33,780.58
• Hang Seng closed -1.52% at 22,849.81
• FTSE is down 3.4% at 8,186.43
• The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 4.26% at 4,895.26
• DJIA closed -3.98% on Thursday at 40,545.93
• S&P 500 closed -4.84% at 5,396.52
• Nasdaq closed -5.97% at 16,550.61
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -3.84% at 24,335.8
• S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.21% at 2,453.38
• The 10-year financial ratio in the US is down 13 bps at 3.9%
• E-Mini S&P 500 futures fell 2.17% to 5,315.00
• E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures fell 2.34%% at 18,238.75
• E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Futures is down 2.26% at 39,854

Bitcoin statistics:

• BTC dominance: 63 (0.31%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02162 (-1.05%)
• Hash rate (7-day moving average): 839 EH/s
• Hashpris (spot): $46.31
• Total fee: 5.78 BTC/$478,070
• CME Futures Open Interest: 135,025 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 27.1 oz
• BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 7.69%

Technical Analysis

• The Bitcoin to Gold dollar price ratio aims to reduce trends.
• However, gold could see a pullback that “sells facts” in the wake of Trump tariffs on Wednesday, leading to a BTC gold ratio breakout.
• Such a move can take signs of an updated bull run in BTC, as cryptocurrencies tend to gather after gold.

Crypto stocks

• Strategy (MSTR): Closed on Thursday at $282.28 (-9.68%), falling 1.11% to $279.14 in front of the market
• Coinbase Global (Coin): Closed at $170.76 (-6.66%), 3.29% at $165.14
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed at C$15.08 (-11.81%)
• Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed at $11.23 (-9.58%), with 3.29% at $10.86
• Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed at $7.30 (-8.98%), down 3.15%, $7.07
• Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $7.15 (-15.08%), 1.96% at $7.01
• CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $7.41 (-7.61%), with 3.51% at $7.15
• Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $12.75 (-10.46%), down 0.16% at $12.73
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $34.06 (-8.02%), down 6.05% at $32
• Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed at $42.63 (-9.93%), down 0.09% at $42.59

ETF Flow

Spot BTCETFS:

• Daily Net Flow: – $99.8 million
• Cumulative net flow: $36.23 billion
• Total BTC holdings: 1.11 million.

Spot ETH ETF

• Daily Net Flow: -$3.6 million
• Cumulative net flow: $2.37 billion
• Total ETH holdings range from 3.39 million.

Source: Farside Investors

One night flow

The chart of the day

• Global search interest for the term “customers” reached a peak of 100 on Thursday, indicating that the public’s curiosity and concern over trade taxes has risen over the past 90 days.
• The peak interest of the general public usually indicates the end of the trend. This means that the market may be looking for past tariffs soon.

While you’re asleep

With ether