What does the Bitcoin (BTC) price drop mean for the broader market?: Crypto Daybook Americas

    Crypto AI Updates010 mins


    Written by Omkar Godbole (all times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)

    Eric Trump was right when he reportedly said on September 27th that the fourth quarter would be an incredible year for crypto holders. So far, it hasn’t been the way the bulls wanted it to be.

    Bitcoin BTC$83,292.08 fell 28% to $82,000, down more than 5% in the past 24 hours alone. The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by 27% to $2.8 trillion.

    Regular readers of Daybook are well aware of the trigger. The auto deleveraging event on October 10 shook market confidence and left arbitrageurs as marginal sellers in the spot market. The exhaustion of financial narratives for digital assets. strong dollar. Expectations for US interest rate cuts decline

    On top of that, Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs are seeing record redemptions. We said these investment vehicles are seen as proxies for institutional investors, who tend to be persistent and take long-term positions.

    If so, these record outflows make me wonder: Are these redemptions and price declines a sign that financial institutions are bracing for greater macroeconomic stress? After all, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are fundamentally liquidity-driven, risk-on/risk-off strategies. Note that BTC peaked at least a month before the stock peaked in late 2021.

    There are several issues that could escalate, including Japan’s fiscal problems, the deterioration of US private credit, and the possibility of an unusually strong dollar, all of which are themes we have mentioned recently.

    These can develop into larger crises. For now, the cryptocurrency market continues to decline, with BTC’s price chart pointing directly to the next major support near $75,000, with increased investor interest in deep out-of-the-money puts tied to BlackRock’s spot ETF. Be alert!

    More information: For an analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today.

    what to see

    For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

    • cryptography
    • macro
      • November 21, 8:45 a.m.: Fed Vice Chairman Philip N. Jefferson speaks on “Financial Stability.” Watch it live.
      • November 21, 9:45am: S&P Global US November PMI. Manufacturing estimate 52, service rating 54.6, composite estimate. 54.5.
      • Nov. 21, 10 a.m.: Final November data from the University of Michigan. Consumer sentiment index estimate 50.5, five-year inflation expectations 3.6%.
    • revenue (estimated based on FactSet data)
      • November 21: Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), pre-market.

    token event

    For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

    • Governance votes and calls
    • unlock
    • Activate token
      • Capybobo (PYBOBO) is listed on Gate in the PYBOBO/USDT pair.
      • sapien$0.1367 The SAPIEN/USDT pair will be listed on Bitmart.

    conference

    For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

    market movements

    • BTC has fallen 4.5% to $91,891.98 as of 4pm ET on Thursday (24h: -9.71%).
    • ETH fell 5.42% to $2,720.57 (24h: -10.18%)
    • CoinDesk 20 fell -6.38% to 2,950.83 (24 hours: -10.42%)
    • Ether CESR comprehensive staking interest rate increases by 7bps to 2.93%
    • BTC funding rate is 0.0072% (7.446% p.a.) on Binance
    CD20 November 21st (CoinDesk)
    • DXY remains unchanged at 100.22
    • Gold futures fell 0.70% to $4,031.70.
    • Silver futures fell 4.14% to $48.22.
    • The Nikkei 225 fell 2.40% to close at 48,625.88.
    • The Hang Seng fell 2.38% to close at 25,220.02.
    • FTSE fell 0.49% to 9,480.78.
    • The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.26% to 5,499.73.
    • DJIA closed 0.84% ​​lower at 45,752.26.
    • The S&P 500 index fell 1.56% to close at 6,538.76.
    • The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.15% to close at 22,078.05.
    • The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 1.23% to close at 29,906.55.
    • The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed down 1.32%. 3,029.45
    • US 10-year government bond interest rate fell 4.3bps to 4.061%
    • E-mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.08% to 6,552.50.
    • E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.34% to 24,048.75.
    • The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26% to 45,944.00.

    bitcoin statistics

    • BTC Dominance: 58.83% (-0.14%)
    • Ether/Bitcoin ratio: 0.03261 (-0.3%)
    • Hashrate (7-day moving average): 1,048 EH/s
    • Hash Price (Spot): $34.10
    • Total fees: 3.17 BTC / $285,386
    • CME futures open interest: 134,245 BTC
    • BTC Gold Price: 20.5oz
    • BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 5.55%

    technical analysis

    BTC daily price chart in candlestick format with Fibonacci retracement. (Trading View)

    BTC has withdrawn 80% of its bull run from April to October. (Trading View)

    • By falling to nearly $81,000, BTC has regained 80% of its gains, from $75,000 in April to over $126,000 in early October.
    • The price fell below the Fibonacci retracement at 0.786.
    • The next support is seen around $75,000.

    crypto assets

    • Coinbase Global (COIN): Thursday closed at $238.16 (-7.44%), pre-market ended at $231.71, -2.71%
    • Circle Internet (CRCL): $66.93 (-4%), -2.66% to end at $65.15
    • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $24.03 (-6.72%), -5.58% to end at $22.69
    • Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $36.50 (0.3%), -3.01% at $35.40
    • MARA Holdings (MARA): $10.24 (-7.75%), -4% to end at $9.83.
    • Riot Platform (RIOT): Closed at $12.78 (-4.27%), -4.85% at $12.16
    • Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $15.16 (-1.49%), -2.37% at $14.80
    • CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $9.78 (-4.31%), -3.99% at $9.39
    • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Ended at $38.76 (-4.06%)
    • Exodus Movement (EXOD): Ended at $14.19 (-2%)

    crypto asset company

    • Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $177.13 (-5.02%), -5.41% at $167.55
    • Semler Scientific (SMLR): Ended at $18.47 (-6.39%)
    • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): Closed at $9.30 (-5.78%), -5.38% at $8.80
    • Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $2.47 (-8.18%), -3.24% at $2.39
    • Light Strategy (LITS): Closed at $1.70 (-4.49%), -4.12% at $1.63

    ETF flow

    Spot BTC ETF

    • Daily net flow: -$903.2 million
    • Cumulative net flow: $57.38 billion
    • Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million

    Spot ETH ETF

    • Daily net flow: -$261.6 million
    • Cumulative net flow: $12.6 billion
    • Total ETH holdings ~6.24 million

    Source: Farside Investors

    while you were sleeping

    • Bitcoin falls towards mid-$80,000 as market structure weakens towards year-end (CoinDesk): Market maker Flowdesk said coins from long-dormant wallets have flooded exchanges with overwhelming bidding, leading to defensive positioning, thin liquidity, and rotation into low-rights puts for downside protection.
    • Exactly one year after Strategy’s all-time high, Bitcoin-related selloff intensifies (CoinDesk): Strategy is down 68% from last November’s all-time high of $543, while Bitcoin has fallen to $81,000 from an all-time high of over $126,000 in October.
    • The weakness in the yen is bullish for BTC and risk assets. Or is it? (CoinDesk): Rising Japanese yields are no longer boosting the yen, as rising debt worries and monetary policy constraints undermine investor confidence and cloud their usefulness as a signal to crypto markets.
    • Bitcoin Heads for Worst Month Since Crypto Crash in 2022 (Bloomberg): Bitcoin is down about 23% this month, analysts say, deepening the correction amid massive liquidations, spot ETF outflows and weak institutional demand, potentially making it the worst month since June 2022.
    • Japan approves $135 billion stimulus package to support households and economy (Wall Street Journal): Liquidity injection signals a shift to aggressive fiscal policy, lifting growth expectations but fueling fears of a debt crunch, further yen weakness and less monetary policy flexibility.





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