Important points:
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Ether’s rebound from a major support confluence has brought $4,500 back within reach.
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The MVRV band indicates that ETH price has broken above the support and is aiming for a rally towards $5,000.
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has rebounded more than 15% in the past two weeks after plummeting to a two-month low of $3,435. Multiple indicators are currently suggesting that ETH could extend its recovery towards $4,500 by the end of October.
ETH price bullish flag bounces in play
Ethereum’s rally appears to be forming within a bullish flag pattern, a structure that often signals the continuation of a prevailing uptrend after a short period of consolidation.
In the case of ETH, the flag is represented by a descending parallel channel that develops after a sharp rise from April lows around $2,500 to August highs around $4,950, as shown below.
The recent rebound from the lower end of the channel near $3,500 coincides with support from the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, blue wave), a level that has historically attracted bullish buyers during bull markets.
If the recovery momentum continues, ETH could target a breakout towards the top of the channel, near the $4,450-$4,500 range, in October.
The preliminary upside price target is in line with analyst FOUR’s double-bottom technical setting, indicating that ETH price will reach the structural neckline resistance of $4,750 within the next few days.
Trader Luca further predicted that ETH would rise towards $4,500 (red area on the chart below) as ETH is above the “weekly bull market support band” represented by the yellow area.
On the other hand, a break above this area could move the price closer to the bull flag target above $5,200, which could be an all-time high by November.
A break below the confluence of support, the lower bound of the bullish flag, and the 200-day EMA support (blue wave) near $3,550 will invalidate the pattern and expose ETH to a deeper retracement towards $3,000-$3,200.
Ethereum MVRV doubles $4,500 target
Ethereum’s MVRV extreme deviation price range indicates that Ethereum’s recent decline has stabilized around its average band around $3,900, a level that has historically served as the starting point for new rallies.
Related: Despite Lee’s financial bubble concerns, BitMine has amassed $1.5 billion in Ether since the crash
Each time ETH rebounded from this midpoint, such as in early 2021, mid-2023, and early 2024, it advanced toward the +1σ (standard deviation) band, where it is currently hovering around $5,000.
This structure suggests that ETH is not indicative of depletion, but instead is in a “healthy correction” phase of an ongoing bullish cycle. If the average level continues to hold as support, a move towards the $4,500-$5,000 zone by late October is statistically likely.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
