Bitcoin (BTC) fell to an all-time low against gold (XAU) in January, making it a better buying opportunity than before the 2015-2017 bull market, analysts say.
Important points:
-
BTC vs. gold has hit an all-time low, matching previous major lows.
-
Some analysts have warned that rotation from gold to BTC is not guaranteed.
Rotation from gold to Bitcoin could start in February
On Saturday, the value of Bitcoin relative to gold fell to its lowest level on record after adjusting for global money supply, according to Bitwise Europe data.
This indicator shows whether Bitcoin is unusually strong or weak relative to gold. It is currently moving near the extreme zone (-2 level on the chart below) that appeared near the bottom of the BTC market in the past.
The last time this band fell to a similar level was in 2015, indicating that BTC is severely undervalued relative to gold. Prior to this, BTC price rose 11,800% from around $165 to $20,000 in just two years. Analyst Michael van de Poppe said in a post on Saturday X:
“Today is a better time to buy Bitcoin than in 2017.”
His comments echoed those of analysts who expect some funds to rotate from gold to bitcoin this year.
These include André Dragosch, Head of Bitwise European Research, and Pav Hundal, Principal Analyst at Swyftx. The latter said such a rotation could start happening in February or March.
Capital turnover “may not happen soon”
The bullish view comes as the price of gold has doubled over the past year, while Bitcoin has fallen 18% over the same period.
However, not everyone agreed that a rotation from precious metals to Bitcoin is imminent, including analyst Benjamin Cowen.
He said Bitcoin’s downward trend could last longer than many holders expect, saying Bitcoin “will likely continue to bleed against the stock market” and arguing that hopes for a “massive rotation” between gold and silver may be unreliable in the short term.
Related: Gold is acting like the hedge Bitcoin promised
Citi said silver could gain more in the coming months due to demand from China and a weaker US dollar. Similarly, RBC Capital Markets predicted that the price of gold will reach $7,000 by the end of 2026.
Cowen said that even if precious metals perform well, a shift to bitcoin “probably won’t happen anytime soon.”
Long-term Bitcoin holders absorbed January’s crash
Despite Bitcoin’s sharp decline in January, on-chain data shows that long-term holders have been quietly rebuilding their positions.
Bitcoin’s supply held by long-term holders (LTH), or entities holding BTC for more than 155 days, began to recover during the January selloff.
Additionally, the LTH Spent Binary, an indicator of whether long-term Bitcoin holders are selling or continuing to hold, continued to fall during this period.
According to analyst Anil, in past cycles, a recovery in LTH supply and a decline in the LTH spent binary preceded the formation of a durable BTC bottom.
A recent example occurred after the April 2025 low. Supply among long-term holders started to recover first, and BTC rebounded sharply after about a month, recovering about 60% from its lows.
These trends suggest that more patient holders are taking advantage of January’s BTC price drop, and in many cases, this is a reset of sorts that helps Bitcoin build a stronger foundation for future gains.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions. While Cointelegraph strives to provide accurate and timely information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not responsible for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this information.
