Crypto analyst and macroeconomicist Alex Krüger believes the market looks ugly, the more bullish it becomes.
On Saturday, Krüger wrote to X: He argued that when price action looks so bad, the panic is usually far enough that the reversal might not be that late.
Bearish Chart
Krüger has attached a series of charts from the Binance and Derivatives dashboards.
They included Bitcoin and ether (eth) The Spot Price Chart was technically bearish as both were below the short-term uptrend line. He also posted Solana A chart showing relative resilience compared to BTC and ETH.
In addition to them, he shared BTC-USDT and ETH-USDT derivative charts. This combined futures metrics such as funding rates and long liquidation with option metrics such as Skew. Together, they showed that traders became much defensive.
Liquidation and leverage reset
In his post, Krüger stated that the long liquidation was “important” especially in the “last two rounds of the end of today.”
In the futures market, traders can borrow to make bullish bets. When the price drops, the collateral will be wiped out and the exchange will automatically close the position. This kind of forced sales pushes prices even further down with the cascade. However, once finished, the market could stabilize as excessive leverage has already been washed away.
The majors under pressure, alts are stable
Analysts also emphasized that while Bitcoin and Ether had absorbed most of the sales, many altcoins would not already crash early in the day. Usually, small tokens collapse after the major, but not before them.
For Krüger, the fork is “often a sign of strength going forward,” suggesting that panic sales have ended.
Krüger told his followers to “check the skew.” In the options market, that imbalance indicates defensive positioning and increased fear.
For people like Krüger, one-sided fear often precedes rebound. Because if everyone is already hedging, there are fewer sellers left to lower the price.
FOMC Catalyst
He is “busy next week,” but Kruger said he doesn’t think a strong trend will develop until after the next policy meeting of the Federal Reserve.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) The meeting will be held from September 16th to 17th, with rate decisions and press conferences at the conclusion of September 17th.
He hopes the Fed will cut interest rates.
Lower rates reduce borrowing costs and often add liquidity.
Cycle View
Krüger emphasized that even if prices drop further in the short term, this is not the end of the cycle. At the same time, he doesn’t expect the kind of euphoric “blow-off top” that marked the past code bull market.
According to him, one exception could be Sol, which continues to attract influx from the new decentralized Treasury ministry, which deploys capital to the network.
For Krüger, setup is easy. The chart looks ugly, liquidation is behind it, fear of options pricing, and the Fed’s decisions loom. His message was simple – when betting on top is when panic is the loudest, not when the celebration begins.
