The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of stabilizing around $70,000 as concerns about an escalating conflict involving Iran begin to ease.
The market recovery remains tentative after weeks of severe declines, which are strongly correlated with a sharp rise in global oil prices and a deterioration in macro sentiment.
Traders are now watching to see if a return to momentum in institutional ETFs and shifts in on-chain supply metrics can help the asset overcome significant structural resistance.
Discover: Best Meme Coins
Iran’s de-escalation rhetoric eases Bitcoin price pressure
Just two weeks ago, geopolitical panic gripped traditional markets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, causing Bitcoin’s price to break through the $66,000 pressure zone and eventually plummet toward $63,000.
Brent crude oil prices at one point soared to $119.50 per barrel on concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
That overarching macro pressure is rapidly receding. Oil then fell again on Monday after President Donald Trump suggested the war involving Iran could wind down soon.
Risk assets responded immediately to the softening of war rhetoric. The S&P 500 closed 0.83% higher, while Bitcoin was forced out of the lagging index, gaining about 4% overnight on the daily chart.
Investors are now reassessing the factors driving cryptocurrency pricing as global stress indicators begin to ease and policy momentum returns to the forefront.
Technical price analysis: Bitcoin price levels that change everything
Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,800 and is still battling strong bearish dominance across the short-term structure.
The asset remains approximately 42% below October’s all-time high ($126,080), making current local consolidation critical to the continuation of the trend.
From here, the next upside target is around $75,000. Reaching that threshold would require continued trading volume and significant changes in the Fear and Greed Index, which currently sits at 13.
Traders analyzing the bottom of the recent market structure are eyeing the $65,000 level as the main line of defense. If this support level fails in the short term, the bears are likely to retarget the February floor at $63,000.
A further drop below the $60,000 floor suggests a major systemic cleanup. Anything beyond that will keep the provisional recovery theory valid.
Will spot and derivatives demand support a recovery?
On-chain internal indicators suggest that the worst of the market’s recent stress may actually be easing.
According to a new market note from Glassnode, overall situation signals are stabilizing as momentum, ETF demand and profitability metrics improve.
The analyst firm notes that while price momentum is slowly consolidating, it still lacks the strength needed to confirm a definitive bullish turn. Sustaining the current rally relies heavily on continued ETF inflows to absorb trapped sellers.
Macroeconomist Henrik Seberg remains optimistic, predicting strong institutional demand for ETFs as geopolitical headwinds completely dissipate, potentially fueling a massive risk-on rally between $110,000 and $120,000.
However, short-term derivatives data shows a clearer picture. Analysts warn that negative funding rates and cascading short-term liquidations, rather than pure spot accumulation, were responsible for the sharp rally to $73,247 on March 4. This means the current floor is more dependent on futures positioning than genuine retail buying pressure.
What traders are looking for next
After all, in the case of Bitcoin, holding the psychological fortress at $70,000 for an extended period of time will pave the way for an upper breakout objective by mid-month.
The downside support at $65,000 will need to be closely guarded by spot buyers heading into the US trading session.
The real macro triggers for changing this price trend remain oil futures and further ceasefire information from the Middle East.
If institutional momentum remains steady despite the recent macro shock, Bitcoin could end the week rejecting the sub-$60,000 narrative altogether.
Discover: The Best Pre-Launch Crypto Sales
The article Bitcoin price shows “signs of improvement” amid fears of Iran de-escalation appeared first on CryptoNews.
