Bitcoin closed its third quarter of 2025 at a record high, fostering belief among investors that Bitcoin’s price will rise further in the final quarter of this year.
Bitcoin prices rose about 5% in September and closed at around $114,000, beating expectations of seasonal debilitating. September was often a difficult month for Bitcoin, but when it ended higher, the final quarter tended to bring about large profits.
Data shows that positive closures in September have been followed by fourth quarter rallies, averaged over 50%, over the years, including 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024.
Seasonal patterns suggest that early strength is particularly important. Since 2015, October has produced an average profit of 21.8%, but November has added 10.8%. Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
If the same pattern is repeated this year, Bitcoin will be able to clear past $150,000 by the end of the year. It’s a familiar sentiment in the Bitcoin space, adding another leg to the year already defined by a new all-time high, and cutting the new supply of assets in half in the wake of the event in April.
Bitcoin has been trading sideways in recent months, but key liquidity metrics suggest that breakouts may be approaching. Global M2 growth, Stablecoin Supply Trends, and Gold’s Rally (where Bitcoin closely tracks with a 40-day delay) are all upwards.
Happy ‘Up’tober
Bitcoin has surged beyond $118,000 today as the US government officially shut down in the middle of the night after Congress failed to pass the funding bill. While Wall Street was falling, investors turned to safe seafarers’ assets and sent money to records of over $3,900 per ounce.
The closure will soon affect federal workers, social security beneficiaries and travelers, but the market is facing disruption due to the suspension of economic data.
Lacking weekly unemployed claims, September pay and mid-term inflation figures for October could complicate Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Bitcoin ETF and institutional support
Institutional activity adds to bullish sentiment. BlackRock has moved more than $130 million in Bitcoin to Coinbase. This is a transfer that some market watchers interpret as a sign of a potential influx into their investment products.
Since 2015, Bitcoin has averaged nearly 58% profit in the fourth quarter, excelling every three months. Whether 2025 is following the historic playbook relies on the period in which investors will maintain their risk appetite in the coming months.
