Cardano (ADA) is once again under significant market pressure after a series of whale-driven shocks and support level collapses sent the asset surging towards multi-month lows.
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ADA is trading around $0.46 to $0.49, below several key zones that protect the price structure into 2024 and early 2025. Analysts are now warning that if the downward momentum continues, the decline could deepen towards the $0.43 to $0.30 range.
ADA's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: ADAUSD on Tradingview
ADA falls as selling pressure intensifies due to whale losses and broken support
Much of the recent volatility has been caused by the dramatic whale incident. A dormant wallet holding 14.45 million ADA and inactive for five years executed a swap to USDA, a pool thin enough for the wallet to absorb catastrophic slippage.
Whale walked away with just $847,000, realizing a staggering loss of $6.2 million. The market reaction was immediate, with confidence cracking, liquidity declining and sellers accelerating their exits.
On-chain data shows that broader whale activity is amplifying the impact. More than 440 million ADAs were offloaded by large holders over the last month, further weakening the structure.
The breakdown of ADA below $0.52 was a level not touched since 2024, confirming a bear market regime dominated by falling highs, falling lows, and widening volatility bands.
Technical outlook points to $0.43…or $0.30
Traders monitoring ADA’s trajectory are highlighting a key zone at $0.43, a technical objective that coincides with the expansion of bearish momentum reflected in indicators such as MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands.
A deepening bearish crossover in the MACD indicates intensifying selling pressure, while the RSI is hovering near oversold territory at around 37, suggesting weakness without confirming a recovery.
Market analysts such as Ali Martinez and Brownstone have warned that ADA could be exposed to broader declines if it fails to regain its broken levels. Martinez identifies $0.30 as long-term structural support and a cycle reset area where accumulation gathers during historically deep corrections.
Analysts note that capitulation indicators such as MVRV indicate an underestimate, but do not rule out the risk of further decline before a recovery materializes.
Midnight’s NIGHT token launch could change sentiment, but uncertainty remains
While ADA is struggling, Cardano’s broader ecosystem is gearing up for a major milestone: the launch of the Midnight’s NIGHT token on December 8, 2025. Midnight is introducing privacy-focused smart contracts with selective disclosure, aiming to balance confidentiality and regulatory compliance.
Analysts believe NIGHT’s rollout could ultimately provide positive momentum if adoption accelerates. Still, traders caution that ADA’s near-term outlook remains tied to technical vulnerabilities, liquidity challenges and overall market sentiment.
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For now, ADA is on the razor’s edge, stabilizing near support, but there is a possibility of further decline towards $0.43 and $0.30 if sellers maintain control.
Cover image from ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart from Tradingview
