A U.S. transparency law aimed at providing greater clarity in regulating the crypto industry has little chance of being passed by the end of the year if the bill does not move forward within the next seven weeks, a crypto industry executive said.
“If CLARITY does not pass the committee by the end of April, it is highly unlikely to pass in 2026,” Alex Thorne, Galaxy Digital’s head of company-wide research, said in an X post on Saturday.
“It needs to be debated in the Senate by early May… time is running out and the odds are decreasing with each passing day,” Thorne said. This comes after U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the chamber is not expected to take action on the Digital Asset Market Structure bill before April in favor of the SAVE America Act, which requires voters to directly provide proof of U.S. citizenship for registration.
Debate over stablecoin rewards may not be the final hurdle
Thorne said the main perceived hurdle to the CLARITY Act is the debate over whether stablecoin rewards will disrupt the traditional banking system that has divided the banking and crypto industries, but warned that more issues could surface once that debate is resolved.
“It’s very likely that compensation is not the ‘last’ hurdle, but just the current hill the bill is on the brink of,” Thorne said, pointing to potential issues surrounding DeFi, developer protections, and regulators.
Sen. Angela Allbrooks, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, recently said that both cryptocurrencies and bank lobbying need to be open to compromise. “We’re probably all going to walk away a little bit dissatisfied,” she said Tuesday.
Investment bank says CLARITY Act may not be enacted until 2029
Some lawmakers were optimistic about the April schedule. Crypto-friendly U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno said on February 19 that the CLARITY Act could pass Congress “hopefully by April.”
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However, investment bank TD Cowen warned in January that the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act may not be passed until 2027 and could take effect in 2029 if Democratic lawmakers block votes beyond the midterm elections and regain power in at least one Congress.
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump criticized banks for delaying the Senate’s crypto market structure bill amid disagreements over stablecoin yield payments. President Trump said on March 4, “The United States needs to complete its market structure as quickly as possible.”
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