Six Polymarket traders made about $1 million by correctly predicting that the US would attack Iran by the end of February, sparking insider trading allegations.
All six wallets were created in February and based almost all of their activity on contracts to predict the timing of potential U.S. attacks, Bloomberg reported, citing data shared by analytics firm Bubble Map SA. In some cases, shares were purchased just hours before the explosion was first reported in Tehran, and some contracts were acquired for about $0.10, the report said.
The timing caught the attention of on-chain researchers, who said the pattern was similar to behavior previously associated with suspected insider activity in prediction markets.
“In cases involving war or conflict, information can be circulated more widely before it becomes public,” BubbleMap CEO Nicholas Weimann said. “Combined with the fact that polymarkets typically require only a wallet to transact, allowing for a high level of anonymity, this could create an incentive for informed participants to act early,” he added.
Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment, but did not receive a response in time for publication.
Related: Polymarket user wins $400,000 betting on ZachXBT investigation
Polymarket’s Iran strike bet collects $529 million in volume
The recent escalation saw more than $529 million flowing into Polymarket strike-related contracts. One particular February 28 contract alone attracted approximately $90 million in trading volume, making it the most popular exercise date among traders. The January 31st scenario yielded approximately $42 million.
In particular, one of the flagged accounts had lost money on a previous prediction and later returned more than $170,000 after making an even larger bet, suggesting that the trade itself does not prove fraudulent activity. The US government had also been publicly warning of possible military action for weeks, rallying speculators to the platform.
There have been a number of allegations of insider trading at Polymarket. This week, just before investigator ZachXBT released allegations that Axiom employees and associates had engaged in insider trading since early 2025, a group of small cryptocurrency wallets made more than $1.2 million betting on contracts related to on-chain investigations into DeFi platform Axiom.
Last month, Polymarket’s account made about $400,000 on a well-timed bet on the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The wallet had about $32,000 deposited into Maduro’s ouster shortly before the news became public, raising concerns of insider trading.
Related: Polymarket Users Back Meteora in Bets Over ZachXBT Cryptocurrency Deletion
US lawmakers move to ban insider trading in prediction markets
As reported by Cointelegraph, US Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing a bill called the Financial Prediction Markets Public Integrity Act of 2026 to limit insider trading on prediction platforms. The proposal would prohibit business agreements tied to government policy or political outcomes if elected officials, political appointees, or government employees possess nonpublic information.
Meanwhile, Polymarket is facing a wave of regulatory action around the world, with several countries including the Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, France, Italy, Romania, Poland, Singapore and Portugal blocking or banning the platform after classifying event-based contracts as unauthorized online gambling rather than financial transactions.
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