Half of the months in the past two years have given Bitcoin a positive return, and this could be a strong sign for Bitcoin to move higher than its current price in December, the economist said.
“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This means there is an 88% chance that Bitcoin will rise in 10 months,” economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Saturday. According to CoinGlass, in 2025, Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, but ended the other six months with declines.
Peterson explained that the metric is used to count the number of positive months in a 24-month period to identify possible inflection points.
Traders at crypto prediction platform Polymarket believe there is a 17% chance that December will be Bitcoin’s (BTC) best month of 2026, just below November’s 18%.
Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s best performing month on average since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%, according to CoinGlass.
Peterson’s prediction comes as the price of Bitcoin is almost 25% below where it was at the beginning of the year ($68,173 at the time of publication), according to CoinMarketCap.
Analysts are divided on how this asset will perform in the near future. “We expect next week to be green for BTC,” MN Trading Capital founder Michael Van de Poppe said on Friday. “This month ends with a massive candlestick and a fifth consecutive month of red,” he said.
On the other hand, other analysts expect further decline in the future. Veteran trader Peter Brand recently told Magazine that Bitcoin’s “real bottom won’t happen until October 2026.”
Related: Cryptocurrency Market Will Recover Almost All Gains From 2024-2025 US Elections
Peterson’s prediction comes as sentiment in the crypto market continues to decline. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, recorded an “extreme fear” score of 9 on Sunday, indicating extreme caution among investors.
However, crypto sentiment platform Santiment said on Friday that the “depletion” of Bitcoin price predictions on social media among crypto market participants is a healthy indicator as sentiment returns to “neutral” territory.
magazine: Six big challenges facing Bitcoin on the path to quantum security
