Bernstein analysts reiterated their long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, calling the current decline in Bitcoin’s price “the weakest bear case” in the asset’s history and maintaining a price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026.
The research and brokerage firm argued that the recent drawdown reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage to the Bitcoin network or investment theory.
“What we are experiencing is the weakest bear market in Bitcoin history,” the analysts wrote, adding that none of the typical catalysts behind past crypto winters have emerged.
Bernstein said previous bear markets were caused by massive failures, hidden leverage or systemic failures. The company hasn’t seen a comparable explosion or widespread bankruptcy this cycle.
Instead, analysts pointed to greater collaboration between organizations as a key difference. They cited support from a pro-Bitcoin US political environment, increased adoption of spot BTC ETFs, increased participation in corporate finance, and continued involvement from large asset managers.
The company maintained that despite the market downturn, Bitcoin’s widespread adoption story remains intact.
Bernstein also addressed criticism that Bitcoin has lagged behind gold during recent periods of macro volatility. They said Bitcoin continues to trade primarily as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than as a mature safe-haven asset.
They pointed out that rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions are concentrating gains in specific areas such as precious metals and AI stocks.
Bernstein said the BTC ETF infrastructure and corporate funding channels are in a position to absorb new liquidity once conditions ease.
Reporter The Block He cooperated with the interviews for this analysis.
Bernstein remains bullish on Bitcoin. Quantum concerns have been dispelled.
Analysts also pushed back against claims that BTC is losing relevance in an economy shaped by artificial intelligence.
They argued that blockchain and programmable wallets could play a central role in an emerging “agent” digital environment where autonomous software agents require global, machine-readable financial rails. They say traditional banking systems are still constrained by closed APIs and traditional integration barriers.
Regarding quantum computing, Bernstein acknowledged that we need to be prepared for future cryptographic threats, but said BTC is not the only one at risk.
The company argued that all critical digital systems face similar risks and will transition to quantum-proof standards all at once.
These thoughts echo those of Strategy, where Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said during Strategy’s Q4 2025 earnings call that the company is launching a Bitcoin security program aimed at engaging with the broader cyber and cryptocurrency community.
This message reflected Strategy’s view that quantum computing is not an immediate threat, but rather a future engineering challenge that networks need time to address.
Thaler characterized quantum fear as the latest version of “FUD” and argued that many major industries still rely on the same cryptographic infrastructure that BTC uses today. He noted that global investment in quantum resistance research is underway and said the Bitcoin ecosystem is already considering upgrades that could strengthen the protocol if needed.
He emphasized that, consistent with Bitcoin’s history of adapting through technological and regulatory pressures, major changes require broad global consensus.
Bernstein added that BTC’s transparent codebase and increased involvement of well-capitalized stakeholders positions it to adapt in parallel with other financial and government systems.
Bernstein also dismissed concerns about leveraged companies accumulating Bitcoin and the risk of miners capitulating.
Analysts said major bitcoin holdings are structuring their debt to withstand a prolonged downturn.
They pointed to comments from Strategy executives that balance sheet restructuring would only be necessary in an extreme scenario where BTC falls to $8,000 and stays there for five years.
Bernstein maintained that the decline reflects weak sentiment rather than a system failure, and reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2026.
As of this writing, BTC is trading just below $70,000.
