Bitcoin Increases Bear Market Concerns as $49,000 Target

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied by less than $50,000 ahead of Sunday’s weekly close as bulls failed to recover from a 10-month low.

Important points:

• Bitcoin price targets remain bearish as Bitcoin bulls lick their wounds at a 10-month low.

• The CME futures gap may ease temporarily heading into the new week.

• Research shows that Bitcoin is still losing realized price support and is still on the path from the initial bear market.

BTC Price: “So far, history is repeating itself”

TradingView data showed that BTC price movement remained below $80,000 after BTC/USD fell more than 6% the previous day.

Bitcoin has largely lost its bull market support levels, including the true market average of $80,700, leaving many traders bearish on the period ahead.

“$74,400 and $49,180 are the two main downside liquidity targets in this bear market,” predicted X account Cmt_trader.

Trader CryptoBullet drew particular attention to the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) loss, an event that preceded previous bear markets.

$BTC Lost 21 month EMA 🥶

It ended in a way I couldn’t even imagine. pic.twitter.com/UFJnoFZmkv

— Crypto Bullet (@CryptoBullet1) February 1, 2026

Following last week’s bull market EMA crossover, trader and analyst Recto Capital agreed that history was on the side of “further continued declines.”

“So far, history is repeating itself, with downsides occurring after bull market EMA crossovers,” he told X Followers.

“Since the crossover occurred, Bitcoin has fallen -17% from $90,000 to $78,000.”

This crossover includes 21-week and 50-week EMAs and was last triggered in April 2022.

Meanwhile, hopes for a short-term rebound rested on a new “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market.

It often acts as a “magnet” for lower time frame prices, with the closest gap currently waiting around $84,000.

Trader Kira therefore predicted that $84,000 would be filled “in the coming weeks.”

$BTC

Closed 50% of short positions. Only 50% left to reach the final goal.

It is expected that 84,000 CME gaps will be closed in the coming weeks. Ideally, we would like to see BTC regain its lower range. If there is no reuse, there is no safe trigger.

Thank you for playing 💸💸 https://t.co/lmj9mKa52j pic.twitter.com/wrKVJUTBht

— Killa (@KillaXBT) January 31, 2026

Bitcoin faces the risk of a new “long-term bearish phase”

Zooming out, the latest on-chain research was still solidly risk-off on longer time frames.

Related: Is the Bitcoin bear market almost over? Key BTC indicators fall below 2022 lows

For on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, spot price trading below the realized price for investors holding BTC for 12 to 18 months was the writing on the wall.

Realized price refers to the total cost basis of the last time BTC moved.

“Historically, when prices remain below this cost threshold, market behavior moves from a normal correction to a structural bearish regime rather than a short-term rebound,” contributor Crazzyblockk warned in a Quicktake blog post.

The study notes that realized prices themselves have remained stable, which “reinforces their role as overhead resistance.”

“When spot prices are flat or below realized costs, rallies tend to fail as supply seeks an exit from the break-even point,” Cradseybrock added.

“From a cyclical perspective, the combination of prices below realized costs, negative unrealized gains, and slowing balance growth is historically consistent with a prolonged bear phase.”