louisa crawford
January 19, 2026 18:07
Bitcoin has fallen back from a high of $98,000, but on-chain data shows the situation is improving. While derivatives markets remain cautious, spot ETF inflows are surging.
Bitcoin has retreated from its recent high of $98,000 and is trading at $93,752, but the decline looks more like a healthy consolidation than a trend break. According to Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse report published on January 19th, momentum indicators have cooled but are still above neutral. This is a pattern that typically precedes a continuation rather than a reversal.
The timing coincides with the $785 million long-term liquidation cascade that briefly pushed Bitcoin to $92,000 earlier this week. However, the appetite of institutional investors remains undiminished.
ETF flows tell the real story
The Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $1.4 billion in net inflows last week. This is the highest weekly total since October 2025. Glassnode notes that these inflows have remained “beyond statistical extremes,” indicating real institutional recapture rather than noise.
MicroStrategy continued its relentless buying spree, adding 13,627 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 687,410 coins and a value of over $51 billion. It tends to matter if the largest company holder remains stuck during a decline.
Trading volumes for ETF products are increasing as capital inflows surge, but Glassnode warns of one risk. The idea is that rising profitability for holders creates short-term profit-taking pressure.
Derivatives signal vigilance, not capitulation
Futures markets tell a more nuanced story. Open interest has risen slightly, suggesting that speculative interest is cautiously returning. But funding rates have fallen sharply, and longs aren’t paying the premium they were a few weeks ago.
Perpetual CVD (cumulative volume delta) remains negative, meaning sell-side pressure continues in leveraged markets. Option traders are pricing in increased uncertainty, with implied volatility near the high end of its historical range compared to realized levels. Downside protection remains in demand.
Stabilization of on-chain metrics
The fundamentals of networking are quietly improving. Active addresses are still suppressed, but are on the rise. Transfer volume continues to increase. Prices are increasing slowly, not explosively, but the direction is positive.
The main concern is that the supply of short-term holders is still increasing and the market remains sensitive to price fluctuations. These new coins tend to be the first to move during volatility.
Trends in the spot market are somewhat optimistic. The net buy/sell imbalance is above the statistical upper limit, indicating that sell-side pressure is finally easing. Trading volume increased moderately. Glassnode characterized spot demand as “fragile and uneven” but improving.
What traders should pay attention to
After absorbing this week’s liquidation cascade, the $90,000 to $92,000 zone has emerged as short-term support. A continued break below could trigger another long unwinding wave.
On the positive side, if we can confidently get $95,000 back, it would signal that the consolidation phase is over. The combination of strong ETF inflows and improving on-chain metrics creates a constructive backdrop, but derivatives positioning suggests the market is not ready to go long aggressively yet.
Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $1.9 trillion, so it takes a lot of capital to move the needle. ETF flow data suggests money is flowing in. Whether that’s enough to overcome resistance remains an open question heading into late January.
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