Miners’ stress has increased as hashrate has fallen to its lowest level since April 2024 due to falling prices and rising costs.
Bitcoin (BTC) is set for a difficult year-end to 2025, as selling pressure intensified in December and the network hashrate declined by around 4% in 30 days, according to VanEck’s latest Bitcoin ChainCheck.
This decline coincides with Bitcoin’s weakest fourth quarter since 2018, which VanEck frames as an unusual situation that often precedes stronger long-term returns rather than a prolonged downturn.
Decline in hash rate, stress among miners, divergence in investor behavior
Bitcoin’s price struggled through December, briefly trading around $81,000 in late November, before falling about 9% last month to hover around $87,000. VanEck said speculative appetite has sharply cooled, while volatility has exceeded 45%, its highest level since April. Perpetual futures funding also reflected the decline in leverage across the derivatives market, with an annualized rate of about 5%, well below the annual average.
Against this backdrop, the investment firm warned of miner stress as an important development. It pointed out that network hash power, measured as a 30-day moving average, recorded the sharpest decline since April 2024.
The report said lower prices and increased competition are putting pressure on profitability, with the breakeven electricity price for older S19 XP miners at about $0.08 per kWh, down from $0.12 a year ago. The shutdown of China’s Xinjiang region may have wiped out nearly 10% of the world’s hashing power as authorities diverted it to AI data centers.
“Network hashrate declined by 4%, the steepest decline since April 2024,” VanEck wrote, adding that similar periods “historically characterized bullish contrarian setups.”
At the same time, capital flows showed market fragmentation. While Bitcoin ETP holdings decreased by 120 basis points month-on-month, corporate digital asset vaults added approximately 42,000 BTC, the largest accumulation since July. Strategy made the majority of these acquisitions using its equity issuance capabilities, and other acquisitions were suspended.
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Why VanEck expects long-term upside despite price weakness
On-chain data paints a mixed picture, with medium-term holders, especially those last moving BTC between 1 and 5 years ago, reducing their exposure, while the oldest cohort remains largely stable. VanEck describes this as a “diamond hand divergence,” with short-cycle participants exiting while long-term holders remain.
Historically, shrinking hashrate has favored patient investors. According to VanEck’s analysis, if the 90-day hash rate growth turns negative, Bitcoin’s 180-day forward return will be positive 77% of the time, with an average increase rate of about 72%.
“Purchasing BTC when 90-day hashrate growth is negative, rather than at any time, has historically improved 180-day forward returns by +2,400 bps,” the report states.
Meanwhile, price trends remain fragile, with Bitcoin down about 22% over the past three months, its worst fourth quarter since the 2018 crash. Still, some market participants argue that the decline reflects a reset rather than permanent damage. Analyst Sycoderick wrote that the recent weakness indicates a structural cooling phase rather than a break in Bitcoin’s long-term trend.
For now, VanEck’s conclusions may offer traders some cautious optimism. While weak on-chain activity and miner pressure remain weighing on the market, improving liquidity conditions and lower leverage suggest that the foundations are being laid for a healthier cycle, with 2026 increasingly positioning as a horizon where today’s stresses are likely to pay off.
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