Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao announced the new BNB Chain prediction market in a post on X this week, highlighting predict.fun, a platform built by former Binance employees that allows user funds to earn yield while positions remain open.
The new market allows users to place bets while earning passive income with idle funds.
This setup is consistent with industry efforts to solve a major inefficiency where traders have to lock up capital for nothing while waiting for an event to resolve.
Polymarket and Kalshi currently layer staking rewards, financial incentives, or points systems on top of predictions to maintain user interest and offset the opportunity cost of long-term markets.
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Predict.fun currently lists two markets with a total trading volume of approximately $300,000.
The site has over 12,000 users and claims to have placed around 300,000 bets.
The difference in size remains large. Polymarket’s total trading volume is more than $3 billion, far exceeding Calci’s roughly $587 million. According to Polymarket Analytics, smaller platforms such as Limitless settled approximately $10.9 million.
This concentration reflects liquidity dynamics that favor established venues. New entrants often see a spike in activity during reward campaigns, but struggle to retain users when the incentives wear off.
However, Predict.fun relies on support from the BNB chain. The BNB chain leads all chains in the number of active wallets (users), and according to on-chain analysis, active addresses have almost doubled in the last year and the market share of token terminals has reached 25%.
While this sounds promising, BNB Chain has a large gap in stablecoin issuance, limiting the liquidity available on Predict.fun.
For now, the more immediate test is whether Predict.fun can catch up with smaller competitors like Limitless and build steady trading volumes. BNB Chain’s large user base may help with that, but the liquidity advantage is not guaranteed in a rapidly compounding market.
