Bitcoin price has seen a lot of volatility recently, starting the week at $107,000, but has since recovered to $110,000, positively impacting its performance.
Despite this, Bitcoin struggles to maintain momentum highest level evercoupled with the increasing selling pressure over the past month, has some speculating that the current bull market may have peaked.
Meanwhile, Bull Theory analysts have identified key indicators that signal a change in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, pointing to a continued bullish trend that could extend into 2026.
Bitcoin price peak expected in Q2 2026
in post Analysts explained on social media platform This pattern has held true for more than a decade, but recent data shows a significant shift.
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According to their analysis, Bitcoin is moving from a four-year cycle to a five-year cycle, with the next peak expected around the second quarter of 2026. This change is believed to be due to deeper structural changes within the global economy.
Governments are taking on longer-term debt, business cycles are becoming longer, and the waves of liquidity flowing through the financial system are moving at a slower pace.
One of the key factors that analysts point out that influences this delay is that once central banks stop tightening monetary policy, monetary policyit typically takes 6-12 months for liquidity to reach the market.
Easing signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the third quarter of 2025, such as signs of an end to balance sheet shrinkage, are expected to affect markets until early 2026, rather than having an immediate effect.
Furthermore, this lag is evident in countries other than the United States and China. money supply (M2) has rapidly increased to more than twice that of the United States and continues to grow. Historically, when liquidity in China increases faster than in the US, Bitcoin prices tend to rise after a few months, resulting in an extended cycle into early 2026.
Japan’s new prime minister has also begun economic measures to combat inflation, and is expected to further contribute to improving global liquidity.
On-chain data shows systematic accumulation
This current cycle is also characterized by organic accumulation rather than retail hype. spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and funds are increasingly buying Bitcoin and holding it for the long term.
Despite current market conditions, consumer interest in Bitcoin remains low, with Google Trends showing a significant drop in search interest compared to 2021 levels.
This indicates that the market is currently in a quiet expansion phase rather than widespread enthusiasm, and the retail euphoria that typically marks the end of a market cycle has not yet materialized.
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On-chain data supports this intermediate cycle structure, revealing that institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin. exchange reserves is near multi-year lows, and selling pressure from miners has diminished since the halving.
Analysts argue that while the four-year halving model remains valid, it is now being reshaped by macro liquidity dynamics, the pacing of financial institutions, and protracted global cycles. As a result, the true peak of this bull market could be closer to the second quarter of 2026 rather than 2025.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
