Key Points:
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Bitcoin begins its retracement after hitting a new all-time high of over $125,000.
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Sunday trading creates volatility in BTC prices as a potential bounce level for traders.
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When Bitcoin’s “Dependency Trade” talk gets heated, the agency is on the radar.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced fresh volatility as it approached the end of each week on Sunday, following a BTC price adjustment from an all-time high.
Analysis: 4% BTC price reduction possible
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that BTC/USD was below $123,000.
The pair hit a new record high of over $125,000 early in the day, and was supported by the derivatives market in unusual weekend trading.
Commenting on the latest price action, popular trader skew warned that the entire move to the upside could be “bait” for long.
“Passive shorts to blend here,” he observed in X’s post, referring to the traders trying to get a short price at high prices.
“The shorts are opening here with the consensus that weekend pumps are bait.”
Coinglass data showed the liquidity of exchange order books, which are taken on either aspect of price.
Crypto market participants tend to see weekend movements both up and down as an unreliable indicator of where prices will ultimately head for the next due to lack of market liquidity.
Given where the retracements are, trader Crypnuevo has focused on the index moving average (EMA) around 50 in a four-hour time frame, currently just above $118,000.
“I think we were able to see the retest of the 4H50EMA a week ago. It’s overly extended and we can see the retest with a similar price action from before,” he writes in the X-thread.
“We’ll then need to make sure the new movements rise. So I’m still favoring the long shorts over the 4H50EMA.”
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital also used historical comparisons to chart future BTC prices performance. He argued that it might take time for $124,000 to break crucially.
“It’s not surprising that Bitcoin refused from ~$124,000 when he first asked about this uptrend. After all, when Bitcoin last refused from $124K, the rejection preceded a -13% pullback,” he reasoned.
“Bitcoin needs to prove that this $124,000 resistance is a weakness in rejection. A shallow dip or pullback from here will do just that.”
Rekt Capital added that BTC/USD has dropped by 4%, allowing you to save weekly uptrends.
Bitcoin’s “Dependency Trade” collects steam
Bullish take, meanwhile, focused on the existence of institutional interests.
Related: jpmorgan, see citi bitcoin Q4 boom: here’s their price target
Caleb Franzen, creator of Cubic Analytics, a financial research resource, said the lack of previous BTC price pullbacks has shown significant demand.
“If you see such a short-term price action, the agency will show up if minimal pullbacks and big spikes rise followed by sustained bids.”
Mainstream financial commentators referenced Bitcoin’s position in “collapse trade,” referring to investors’ desires against the decline in the value of Fiat currency.
digital #gold -Alias #bitcoin – Following its analog counterpart, it has reached a new record >$125,000, a milestone in the ongoing decline trade, as investors seek protection from currency devaluation. pic.twitter.com/khjeet5ew8
– Holger Zschaepitz (@schuldensuehner) October 5th, 2025
Cointelegraph reported on this trend, but its name was coined by JPMorgan analysts at the beginning of the year.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
