Seeing Bitcoin surge to $20,000 in the fourth quarter in Fed policy shift

Bitcoin (BTC) is fighting fresh volatility, and despite nearly two months of price lows, some market watchers have argued that the fix is ​​far from a cycle-top signal.

Instead, they predict that the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision could trigger a massive gathering, pushing the number one cryptocurrency to an unprecedented level by the end of the year.

Analysts oppose bearish feelings

As reported by Cryptopotato, Bitcoin fell below $108,100 on August 29th, lowering the broader crypto market by $170 billion in one day, after US PCE inflation data was slightly higher than expected. The move only added fuel to speculation that the Bull Run might have already reached its peak.

However, some experts are challenging that view. In a detailed post about X, pseudonym analyst Wall Street argued that the current sale was a readjustment rather than a bear market. According to him, the peak of the true market usually comes from a universal sense of happiness.

Additionally, he turned his attention to what he considers to be the main event in September, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled to take place in the next two weeks. The market is priced at a standard 25 basis point rate reduction, suggesting that weakening labor data could force the Fed’s hands to a more substantial 50 bp reduction.

Such a move, in his opinion, could trigger a wave of Fear of Fun (FOMO) purchases, as it caught the market off guard and marks the true beginning of a new quantitative mitigation cycle. This scenario forms the basis of his price targets from $140,000 to $145,000, and ultimately from $160,000 to $200,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Cryptoquant analyst Carmelo Alemán has noted in a recent post that some key metrics rule out the top of the cycle. He noted that the NVT ratio remains low. This shows healthy network health compared to assessments and stable miner reserves lacking the typical aggressive sales of major peaks.

Furthermore, the MVRV ratio has not reached the overheating levels historically related to the cycle climax. These factors suggest that long-term holder accumulation is ongoing and provides a solid foundation for growth.

Bitcoin price action

Meanwhile, in the market, Bitcoin was trading for $107,420 per Coingecko at the time of this writing. This has resulted in a 1.2% decline in the last 24 hours and 5.1% in the last week, and has not performed a 1.5% DIP in the broader Crypto Market over the same period.

Additionally, OG Crypto cut its 7.2% in two weeks and 5.5% down from 5.5% last month. However, performance for the same period last year remained a boon of that savings, at which point its assets had grown by 83.5%.

Recent drops are below BTC at 13.5%, down to an all-time high of $124,000 on August 14th. The $107,000 to $109,000 range offers short-term support, but the market lacks the momentum needed to regain a higher level.