Lawrence Jenger
June 28, 2025 09:18
Bitcoin is only in the $100,000 to $110,000 range, reducing on-chain activity and profits. Market dynamics suggest limited momentum unless demand increases.
According to GlassNode Insights, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a limited upward momentum as it continues to trade within the $100,000 to $110,000 range. Despite maintaining a support level of $99,000, a decline in spot trading volume and cautious sentiment in the futures market suggests that further upward movements could be constrained, provided there is no significant inflow of demand.
Market volatility and key support levels
Recent geopolitical tensions have temporarily penetrated Bitcoin at $99,000, testing support levels at $98,200, close to the average purchase price for short-term holders. However, reports of easing tension allowed Bitcoin to rebound to $106,000. Currently, Bitcoin has returned to its consolidation phase within the corridors, a pattern observed since early May, between $100,000 and $110,000.
An analysis of the cost-based distribution (CBD) shows that when Bitcoin fell to $99,000, it found support at the top of the $93,000 to $100,000 range. This price range remains important structural support from the first quarter of 2025. If prices exceed this range, the bullish trend in the medium term remains the same. However, violations can cause sales from investors entered at these levels, increasing downward pressure.
Futures Market Dynamics
The weekend volatility led to a major liquidation in the futures market, with a long position of $28.6 million and a short position of $25.2 million. This highlights how quickly market sentiment can turn around based on news. During the same period, open interest in BTC futures fell by 7%, down from 360,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC, indicating a speculative restructuring of positions.
Despite Bitcoin’s recovery from $100,000 to the $110,000 range, profit acquisition and activity on the chain show signs of cooling. This pattern is typical of the integration phase where volatility is calming and investor participation declines. If this trend continues, the market will deliver previous profits while waiting for new momentum and inflows of demand, making its chances to exceed history highs.
Decreases profits and activities
A 30-day moving average comparison of previous bull market realised profits and cumulative profits was conducted to assess investors’ tendencies to make profits. In the 2020-2022 market, investors realized about $550 billion in profits through multiple gatherings, including two significant increases. In the current cycle, profit realization has already reached $650 billion, surpassing previous totals.
After the third major profit acquisition stage, the market cools as profits gradually decreases, indicating a decline in market enthusiasm. Additionally, the seven-day moving average of on-chain transfer volumes fell by about 32% from $76 billion in late May to $52 billion in recent weekends.
Unlike record rallies in the second and fourth quarters, recent attempts to violate $111,000 don’t involve a surge in spot trading volume, which remains at $7.7 billion, which is significantly lower than its previous peak. This contradiction suggests a weakening of speculative interest as the market adopts a waiting approach.
Futures Market Notes
While participation in the futures market remains active, traders are involved in breakout attempts of up to $111,000, the aggressive positioning seen in 2025 is softer. Funding rates (annual) and three-month futures standards continue to decline, showing caution among traders. This trend suggests an increase in prudence in speculative activity, with potential growth or short positions in cash and carry arbitration positions.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is currently navigating markets bound by the extent affected by macroeconomic news, receiving strong support ranging from $93,000 to $100,000. However, signs of market fatigue have become apparent, with a lack of spot trading volume following recent attempts to reduce profits, slow activity in the chain and reach new highs. As long as prices exceed key support levels, bullish trends remain, but the new record-highest possibilities are limited without a recovery in demand and investor sentiment.
For a detailed analysis, see GlassNode Insights.
Image source: ShutterStock
