Bitcoin (BTC) prices can return to the $100,000 level faster than investors would expect if early signs of separation from US stock markets and gold continue.
sauce: Collie Bates / x
A relationship between “Gold Lead and Bitcoin Follow” has begun
Bitcoin avoided market anxiety caused by US President Donald Trump’s global tariff announcement on April 2.
BTC initially fell by more than 3% to around $82,500, but ultimately exceeded $84,700, at around 4.5%. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, with gold slipping 4.8% after hitting $3,167 on April 3rd.
BTC/USD vs. Gold and S&P 500 Daily Performance Chart. Source: TradingView
The new divergence fuels the “The Story of Gold Lead Bitcoin” and predicts a strong price recovery to $100,000 from price trends from late 2018 to mid-2019.
Gold began a steady rise, rising nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained almost flat. Bitcoin’s breakout soon continued, rallying at over 170% in early 2019, and by the second half of 2020 there was an additional 344% surge.
BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD 3-day price chart. Source: TradingView
“A $100K landfill means a handoff from gold to BTC,” said market analyst Macroscope.
“Like in the previous cycle, this opens the door to a new period of greater outperformance by BTC than gold and other assets.
Outlook coincided with Mike Alfred, founder of Alpine Fox, who shared the analysis since March 14, and expected Bitcoin to grow more than 10 times more than gold based on previous instances.
sauce: Mike Alfred / x
Bitcoin to Gold Ratio warns about Bull Trap
Bitcoin could be falling towards $65,000 based on bearish fractals playing in the Bitcoin to Gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.
The BTC/XAU ratio flashes the familiar patterns traders last saw in 2021. This collapse followed the second major support test on the 50-2W index moving average.
2-week chart of BTC/XAU ratio. Source: TradingView
BTC/XAU is currently repeating this fractal and testing the red 50-EMA again as support.
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin fell decisively after consolidating the same EMA level with flipping and eventually found support in the 200-2W EMA (Aowa). If history repeats itself, especially if macro conditions deteriorate, BTC/XAU may be on track for deeper corrections.
Interestingly, these breakdown cycles are consistent with the decline in Bitcoin’s value and dollar terms, as shown below.
BTC/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingView
If fractals are repeated, Bitcoin’s initial downside target could be 50-2W EMA at the $65,000 level, with additional selloffs suggesting a decrease of less than $20,000, working with the 200-2W EMA.
Meanwhile, bounces from BTC/Xau’s 50-2W EMA could disable the bearish fractal.
The US recession will crush Bitcoin’s bullish outlook
From a basic perspective, the price outlook for Bitcoin appears to be distorted by drawbacks.
Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could swirl into a full-scale trade war and cause a recession in the US. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to perform poorly during economic contraction.
Related: Bitcoin “Decup”, “Stocks lost $3.5T amid Trump’s tariff war, giving warnings of “higher inflation”
On April 4th, suppressing further attenuation sentiment, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell opposed expectations for short-term interest rate cuts.
Powell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, informing a long-term fast environment that could put more pressure on Bitcoin’s emergency momentum.
Nevertheless, according to CME data, most bond traders are seeing three consecutive interest rate cuts until the Fed’s September meeting.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
