📰Bitcoin on Edge: U.S. Recession Odds Spike Above 50% After Tariff Shock — BTC Sentiment Hits Lows as Market Braces for Economic Slowdown.
⚠️ U.S. Recession Odds Surge Past 50%, Bitcoin Braces for Macro Fallout
🔥 [New Update]
Bitcoin is flashing warning signals as recession fears escalate rapidly. According to prediction markets, the probability of a U.S. recession has now climbed past 50%: Kalshi reports a 53% chance, up by 8.1%, while Polymarket has surged to 54%. This comes on the heels of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announced on April 2 — a sweeping protectionist move that’s now shaking both traditional and digital markets.
🌐 Tariff Impact: Economic Shockwave Begins
President Trump’s newly introduced “Liberation Day” tariffs impose:
34% duties on Chinese imports
20% duties on goods from the European Union
This aggressive stance has forced multiple institutions and economists to rapidly revise their outlooks:
Larry Summers: 50% chance of recession
JPMorgan: 40%
CNBC Fed Survey: 36%
Moody’s Analytics & Pimco: 35%
🔥 News Update:
Even Goldman Sachs, which had previously maintained a 20% estimate, has sharply increased its U.S. recession forecast to 35%, signaling a notable shift in institutional sentiment.
📉 Crypto Struggles as Risk Sentiment Weakens
Bitcoin has dropped 5.7% in the past 24 hours, now hovering around $83,000, marking a 24.7% drawdown from its $109,000 all-time high in January. Ethereum and XRP are also down, struggling to hold support levels amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
The Bitcoin Bull Score Index — a sentiment metric — has fallen to 10, signaling deep fear and uncertainty among investors. Rising exchange inflows confirm a risk-off approach across traders and institutions.
🏦 Rate Cuts Are Coming — But Will They Help?
The Federal Reserve is still expected to implement four rate cuts in 2025, yet the impact may be blunted by growing recession fears. What once was viewed as a tailwind for crypto is now competing with panic-driven risk aversion.
🔮 What’s Next for Bitcoin and Crypto?
Some bold projections still stand — Ethereum at $9,000, XRP at $12 — but sentiment is deteriorating fast. Without a clear catalyst or institutional inflows, crypto may continue to mirror global economic fears rather than break away from them.
🧭 Key Takeaways
✅ Bitcoin is no longer just a hedge — it’s a macro-sensitive asset in 2025
✅ U.S. economic data and policy moves will heavily influence crypto direction
✅ Recession fears are rising faster than risk appetite — stay nimble
💬 CryptoAI Updates delivers macro-informed crypto intelligence — because market context matters.
📩 Forward this to someone who still thinks BTC is “uncorrelated.”
